By Farshid Keramat Middle powers like Canada, Germany, and Brazil are caught in an escalating geopolitical vice. As protectionist sentiment in Washington creates new trade barriers, middle powers face growing pressure to seek alternative markets. However, reflexively pivoting toward Beijing carries significant strategic risks. China currently holds a near-monopoly on critical mineral processing, controlling over 90 percent of global battery-grade graphite and rare earth elements. Trading economic reliance on the United States for strategic dependence on China does not deliver autonomy; it merely exchanges one vulnerability for another. The true, sustainable off-ramp for middle powers lies across the Atlantic by deepening strategic trade partnerships with African economies. Long relegated to the periphery of Western foreign policy or viewed through the outdated lens of foreign aid, the African continent is undergoing a massive structural transformation. Driven by the African Cont...
By Farshid Keramat
For years, the conventional wisdom among political and economic leaders has been that expanded global trade leads to peace. This belief, rooted in liberal theory, suggests that countries with strong economic ties are less likely to go to war. However, in an increasingly competitive world, this idea is being challenged. Trade is no longer simply a neutral economic activity; it has become a powerful tool of national strategy.
The Strategic Imperative of Trade Policy
The long-standing economic partnership between the United States (U.S.) and China offers a clear example of this new reality. While Americans have enjoyed the benefits of inexpensive goods from China, this engagement has also contributed to China’s emergence as a major global power and military competitor. Since the 1990s, Beijing’s economic growth has funded a significant expansion of its armed forces and a shift toward manufacturing its own advanced military technology. This transition marks a critical strategic development.
Beijing’s Growing Regional and Global Influence
China’s assertive stance on the international stage presents a direct challenge to global stability. Its broad claims over the South China Sea—a vital waterway for nearly a quarter of all global trade—are both legally questionable and a source of ongoing tension. Combined with long-held ambitions toward Taiwan, this creates a potential flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific. U.S. officials have openly warned of the “devastating consequences” of a conflict. Meanwhile, China’s strengthening ties with Russia, Iran, and North Korea signal a coordinated effort to undermine Western leadership.
National Security Implications
For the U.S., these geopolitical shifts mean that control over critical supply routes could be weaponized by an adversary, posing a genuine national security risk. While the U.S. has built a robust network of security alliances in Asia, the effectiveness of these partnerships depends on stable economic relationships. Today, trade policy is not just about GDP—it is a source of geopolitical leverage.
A New Framework for Trade
The United States and other established democracies need to redefine their approach to global commerce. Instead of forging deeper economic ties with geopolitical rivals, they should prioritize partnerships with developing democracies that share their values, such as the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia. These nations offer strong manufacturing capabilities and political alignment. By reorienting supply chains toward these partners, established democracies can enhance both economic resilience and strategic positioning.
Past agreements like the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‑Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) demonstrate that trade can be a tool for diplomacy and political stability. While a full economic separation from China will be gradual, current global events make beginning this realignment an urgent necessity.
Conclusion
In the modern world, trade policy must be built on the principles of resilience, shared values, and strategic foresight. To protect their democratic institutions and promote global stability, developed countries must integrate trade and national security into a single, cohesive strategy.
Editor’s Note: This article is a condensed policy digest. The full, unabridged analysis was originally published by the Diplomatist. You can read the complete article here.
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